Despite the relief emanating from the US’s decision to withhold tariffs, veteran banker Keki Mistry believes that India’s economy remains strong and robust. Mistry, who sits on the boards of several leading institutions, including HDFC Bank, believes that the impact of trade tariffs on India would be minimal due to the country’s relatively small export sector. He notes that exports to the US account for only 17% of India’s total exports, which means that the direct impact on India’s GDP would be limited to 40-50 basis points.
Mistry further argues that the fear surrounding trade tariffs has been “overblown” and that India’s economy should be evaluated on a relative basis, rather than in isolation. He points out that India’s GDP is comprised of multiple sectors, including services, manufacturing, and agriculture, and that the exports component is relatively small. Additionally, he cites the decline in oil prices as a positive factor, which would offset some of the potential negative impact of tariffs. He also notes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has infused liquidity into the system, which would add further to India’s economic growth.
Mistry believes that long-term investors should view the current market volatility as a buying opportunity, as the tariffs are a short-term issue. He estimates that the net impact of tariffs on India’s GDP would be around 25-30 basis points, which is a manageable level. Overall, Mistry’s assessment is that India’s economy remains strong and resilient, and that the concerns surrounding trade tariffs have been exaggerated.