Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) forecasts that the September quarter (Q2FY26) will mark the bottom for the banking sector’s net interest margins (NIMs), with profitability expected to recover gradually in the second half of the year. This recovery will be driven by deposit repricing and the phased Cut in Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR). According to MOFSL, credit growth remains modest, with system-wide credit growth standing at 10.3% year-on-year as of September 5, 2025. The brokerage expects systemic loan growth to sustain at 11% in FY26E and improve to 12.5% in FY27E, aided by a pickup in consumption from GST rate cuts, income tax relief, and lower borrowing costs.
MOFSL notes that system deposit growth held steady at 9.8% year-on-year in September, despite rate cuts. However, banks continue to face challenges in mobilizing low-cost Current Account and Savings Account (CASA) deposits. The moderation in policy rates has led to reductions in both savings and term deposit rates, which should lower the cost of funds in the second half and aid NIM recovery.
The brokerage expects sharper NIM declines for certain banks, including Bandhan Bank, Equitas SFB, AU SFB, and Axis Bank, while RBL Bank could see a slight improvement. Stress remains in unsecured retail segments, such as microfinance and credit cards, though collection efficiencies are improving. Select segments, including micro-LAP, CV loans, and affordable housing, are also showing signs of stress, with additional risks from recent floods in northern and eastern states.
For Q2FY26, MOFSL estimates a decline in Net Interest Income (NII) for its coverage universe, with a 0.9% year-on-year decline and a 1.8% quarter-on-quarter decline. Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPoP) is projected to fall 5.5% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter, while Profit After Tax (PAT) is expected to decline 7.2% year-on-year and 4.5% quarter-on-quarter. However, the brokerage sees earnings traction building from the second half of FY26, leading to a 17.7% PAT Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) over FY26-28E.
In terms of specific bank performance, MOFSL forecasts that private banks’ PAT will fall 7.3% year-on-year in Q2, with NII growth muted at 0.6% year-on-year. Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks’ PAT is projected to fall 7.1% year-on-year, driven by NIM compression and lower treasury gains. Small Finance Banks are expected to face persistent NIM pressure in Q2, while fintechs and payments companies, such as SBI Cards and Paytm, are expected to report strong growth. Overall, MOFSL expects the banking sector to recover gradually in the second half of the year, driven by deposit repricing and the phased CRR cut.