A recent analysis by the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has estimated that approximately 15.7 million Americans could lose their health insurance coverage if the bill passed by the House of Representatives on May 22 becomes law. This figure is significantly higher than previous estimates and is based on revised numbers published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) after the House Republican caucus made changes to the bill. The analysis, entitled “By the Numbers: House Bill Takes Health Coverage Away From Millions of People and Raises Families’ Health Care Costs,” breaks down the estimated number of people who would lose coverage due to various provisions in the bill.
According to the analysis, roughly 15 million people would lose health coverage and become uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid cuts, the failure to extend enhanced premium tax credits, and other changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace. This figure includes 7.6 million people who would become uninsured due to Medicaid policies, 1.8 million due to codification of Trump Administration marketplace rule provisions, 2.1 million due to marketplace policies, and 4.2 million due to the failure to extend premium tax credit enhancements.
The analysis also found that the bill’s Medicaid cuts would be the largest in the program’s history, with an estimated $716 billion in cuts. This would put between 9.7 million and 14.4 million people in the expansion population at risk of losing Medicaid due to a harsh work requirement. The Center estimates that if coverage losses mirror those experienced in Arkansas, which implemented similar requirements, some 7 million people would lose coverage.
The analysis emphasizes that when people lose health coverage, they lose access to essential care, including preventive and primary care, care for life-threatening conditions, and treatments for chronic conditions. The bill’s work requirement would harm parents, people with disabilities, and those with chronic illnesses, as past experience has shown that exemptions often do not work and people get caught in bureaucratic red tape. The Center notes that two-thirds of people aged 19-64 receiving Medicaid in 2023 worked during the year, and many of those who didn’t were taking care of a family member or had an illness or disability.
Overall, the analysis suggests that the bill passed by the House of Representatives would have devastating consequences for millions of Americans who rely on health insurance coverage. The estimated 15.7 million people who could lose coverage would face significant barriers to accessing essential healthcare, which could have serious consequences for their health and well-being.