According to a research report by the State Bank of India (SBI), India’s GDP growth is projected to be around 6.4-6.5% in the fourth quarter of FY25 and 6.3% for the entire fiscal year. This forecast assumes no significant revisions in the Q1 to Q3 estimates when the National Statistics Office (NSO) releases the upcoming data. The report notes that global economic activity is expected to be impacted by escalating trade tensions and high levels of policy uncertainty, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting global growth to drop to 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026.
In contrast, India’s growth outlook is relatively stable, with the SBI report predicting 6.2% growth in FY25, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas. However, this is 30 basis points lower than the earlier estimate due to trade tensions and global uncertainty. The report’s projection is also lower than the NSO’s estimate of 6.5% growth for 2024-25, which was made in February.
Another rating agency, ICRA, has also revised its growth forecast for India, predicting 6.9% growth in the quarter ended March 31 and 6.3% for the full 2024-25 fiscal. This is lower than the NSO’s implicit estimate of 7.6% for the quarter. ICRA’s projection suggests that the year-on-year expansion of the GDP will rise to 6.9% in Q4 FY25, from 6.2% in Q3 FY25.
Overall, the reports suggest that while India’s growth outlook is relatively stable, it is still vulnerable to global economic uncertainties and trade tensions. The revised forecasts by SBI and ICRA indicate that India’s economic growth may not meet the earlier estimates, and the actual growth rate may be lower than expected. The upcoming data release by the NSO will provide a clearer picture of India’s economic performance in the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year.