The New Zealand government’s Budget 2025 has maintained its goal of returning to a surplus by 2029, but the deficit path has significantly widened due to a weaker growth forecast and new tax incentives. The government has reduced its operating allowance to NZD 1.3 billion, the lowest in over a decade, while keeping capital spending steady at NZD 4 billion. Despite this restraint, the projected fiscal deficits over the next four years have increased, with a deficit of NZD 12.1 billion (2.6% of GDP) forecast for FY26, which is NZD 1.6 billion wider than previously projected.
The budget has also revised up the total borrowing over the forecast horizon by NZD 4 billion, with gross issuance increasing to NZD 175 billion (42% of GDP) over the next four years. While bond issuance for FY25 and FY26 has been trimmed by NZD 4 billion, this reduction is offset by increases in later years, including a NZD 6 billion uplift in FY29. The funding task remains significant, particularly as maturities from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program roll off and debt servicing costs rise.
The budget is unlikely to alter the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) near-term monetary policy path. The RBNZ is expected to remain focused on keeping inflation in check, particularly as global risks and medium-term pressures persist. The budget’s message is clear: fiscal policy will support disinflation, but monetary policy will remain the primary anchor. As a result, the RBNZ is likely to continue to prioritize price stability, even as the government’s fiscal policy becomes more expansionary.
Overall, the budget suggests that the government is taking a cautious approach to fiscal policy, while also acknowledging the need for ongoing support for the economy. The increased borrowing and revised deficit projections reflect the challenges posed by a weaker growth backdrop and the need for fiscal flexibility. However, the RBNZ’s monetary policy stance is likely to remain unchanged, with a focus on maintaining price stability and supporting the economy through a period of uncertainty.