The Indian government’s Union Budget for 2026-27 is expected to prioritize capital expenditure as the main driver of growth, with a focus on infrastructure-led development. According to a report by DBS Group, taxes are likely to remain largely unchanged, with policymakers focusing on execution over fresh allocations. The report estimates that capital expenditure will be around 3-3.1% of GDP, with an emphasis on shovel-ready and greenfield projects, as well as concessional support for state-level capital expenditure.
The report notes that India’s fiscal position has strengthened post-pandemic, with the central deficit halving and a sovereign outlook upgrade in 2025. Despite a potential revenue shortfall of Rs 1.1-1.2 trillion in FY26, the report expects the government to meet deficit targets through spending rationalization, moderated capital expenditure, and restrained revenue expenditure growth. The FY27 Budget is expected to anchor fiscal policy to the debt-to-GDP ratio, with the Centre targeting a reduction to around 50% by FY31.
On the revenue front, the report expects no major tax changes, with gradual gains in tax buoyancy driven by stronger nominal GDP growth. Non-tax revenues may rise due to higher dividends from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and public sector undertakings (PSUs), while divestment targets are likely to remain modest. The report concludes that the FY27 Budget will balance fiscal discipline with growth, avoiding major tax surprises and sustaining capital expenditure momentum.
The Budget is also expected to reflect India’s strategic priorities, including manufacturing, infrastructure, defence, and social welfare, while taking into account a crowded state election calendar. Overall, the report suggests that the government will prioritize long-term economic priorities, such as reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio and promoting infrastructure-led growth, while maintaining fiscal discipline and avoiding major tax changes. This approach is expected to support India’s economic growth and development in the coming year.