A recent report by SBI Mutual Fund predicts that investments in India are likely to outpace consumption in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26). The report suggests that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.5-7% in FY26, down from 7.5-9% in the previous two years, but still considered a healthy rate of expansion. The report cites increased investments, rural consumption, and higher government spending as key drivers of growth in the coming quarters.
The report highlights a shift in the government’s and Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) policies, which were previously focused on consolidation and inflation control. However, the RBI has now initiated interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and relaxed credit regulations to support economic growth. On the fiscal front, the government is maintaining its consolidation efforts but is expected to better meet its spending targets, contributing to growth.
The report notes that corporate order books remain strong, indicating a stable private investment pipeline, and nominal GDP growth could pick up to 10-11% in FY26, up from 9-10% in FY25. With both monetary and fiscal policies now focused on economic expansion, investments are likely to be the primary driver of growth in FY26, surpassing consumption as the main contributor.
This positive outlook is supported by India’s 6.2% GDP growth in the third quarter of FY25, a recovery from the revised 5.6% in the previous quarter. The report concludes that investments are likely to be the key driver of growth in FY26, leading to a robust economic expansion.