According to a Bank of Baroda report, India’s industrial production showed signs of improvement towards the end of FY25, driven by rising manufacturing PMI, GST collections, and e-way bill generations. The report suggests that the production growth may have picked up in the last quarter of the previous financial year, although the first quarter of the current fiscal year may face some pressure due to uncertain global trade conditions. The Reserve Bank of India’s decision to reduce policy rates is expected to lower the cost of credit, which may encourage production and investment. Additionally, the Trump administration’s announcement of a 90-day pause on country-specific tariffs and softer global commodity prices are seen as positives for the sector’s near-term outlook.
However, recent data shows a mixed picture. India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to 2.9% in February 2025, down from 5.6% in February 2024 and 5.2% in January 2025. The decline in output was broad-based, with the mining and electricity sectors witnessing the most significant slowdown. Within the manufacturing segment, several key industries reported lower output, including basic metals, wearing apparel, chemicals, and motor vehicles. On the other hand, some sub-sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and computers/electronics saw an improvement in output.
Under the use-based classification, only capital goods showed year-on-year growth, while output of primary goods, intermediate goods, infrastructure goods, and consumer durables fell. The IIP growth for the fiscal year so far has moderated to 4.1%, compared to 6% growth in the same period last year. While production may have picked up towards the end of FY25, the outlook for Q1 of FY26 remains mixed, with both positive and negative factors influencing the sector’s growth.