According to a report by Bank of Baroda, India’s 10-year bond yield is expected to trade between 6.25-6.55% in the current fiscal year (FY26). The report attributes this projection to the government’s carefully planned borrowing program, which includes a higher supply of securities at the shorter end of the yield curve. This is expected to keep the long end of the curve stable. The report also notes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken steps to maintain liquidity, which will support the orderly evolution of the yield curve.
India’s 10-year yield had shown some stickiness in the last financial year (FY25), particularly in April, due to rising US 10-year yields and tighter inflation data. However, the yield curve subsequently became rangebound due to the Federal Reserve’s earlier-than-expected rate cuts, India’s inclusion in global bond indices, and a prudent fiscal framework. The RBI’s increased demand for securities through Open Market Operations (OMOs) also capped the impact of these factors on yields.
Another important driver of domestic yields has been India’s increasing weight in global bond indices, which has attracted significant foreign portfolio investment (FPI) flows, particularly through the fully accessible route (FAR) route. Additionally, the report highlights the buoyant demand conditions from banks, mutual funds, and pension funds, which have supported yields in a tight liquidity environment. Overall, the report expects India’s 10-year bond yield to remain stable and within the projected range of 6.25-6.55% in FY26.