The article highlights the struggles of banking stocks, particularly private banks that listed in the last decade. Despite being seen as having growth potential, many of these banks have underperformed the market, leading to significant losses for investors who tried to identify the “next HDFC Bank”. Out of 13 private bank IPOs in the last decade, only 2 have posted positive returns since their IPO, and none have beaten the index. Even larger banks, such as Federal Bank, have only managed to keep pace with the Nifty Bank index, with a CAGR of 10%.
The article suggests that “fortune favors scale”, implying that larger banks are more likely to perform well over the long-term. This is reflected in the Nifty Bank index, where the top 5 constituents (HDFC Bank, SBI, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank) account for 86.5% of the combined market capitalization of all Nifty Bank constituents, up from 17.5% in 2015.
The article concludes that investors would be better off buying the index rather than trying to pick individual stocks in the banking sector. This is a decade-long lesson learned, with many investors having lost money trying to identify the next high-performing bank. As legendary investor John Bogle once said, “Don’t look for a needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” This piece of advice may be particularly relevant for long-term investors who are not sure how to pick stocks in the banking sector.