The Indian pharmaceutical industry is expected to have a mixed third quarter, with domestic formulations and specialty launches driving growth despite US pricing pressure. Companies like Sun Pharmaceuticals and Lupin are likely to lead the way, driven by their specialty businesses. Sun Pharma’s revenue is expected to grow in the mid-single digits, driven by its domestic formulation sales and new product launches. Lupin is also expected to deliver a strong quarter, thanks to its US business and drugs like Tolvaptan and Mirabegron.
On the other hand, companies like Cipla and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories are expected to face softer US sales due to pricing pressure and higher competition. Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories is expected to post a muted performance, with its domestic business remaining strong but its US business weighing it down. Cipla’s US business is also expected to remain weak, although it may be partly offset by gains in select therapies.
Divi’s Laboratories is expected to stand out with double-digit growth from its custom synthesis business, while Aurobindo Pharma is likely to post steady gains on injectables and efficiency. Aurobindo’s European business is expected to continue to expand, while its emerging markets are likely to remain flat.
Key factors to watch in the third quarter include progress on new product launches, biosimilar filings, and developments around potential partnerships in the US market to mitigate tariff-related risks. The US generics segment is likely to gain from new launches, while the contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) and active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) segments may deliver mid-single-digit growth.
Overall, the Indian pharmaceutical industry is expected to navigate a challenging environment in the third quarter, with US pricing pressure and competition weighing on growth. However, companies with strong domestic formulation sales, specialty launches, and diversified businesses are likely to outperform the industry. As the industry continues to evolve, companies will need to focus on innovation, efficiency, and strategic partnerships to drive growth and stay competitive.